1. He aha te mea e tū ana i tēnei wā?
Ko te wiki tuatahi tēnei o Hānuere 2026. Kua tino rerekē te ao mō te hoko konganuku. Ka taea e tātou te kī ko te "Ārai Rino Rauemi".
Mō ngā tau rua tekau kua pahure ake nei, ka taea e tātou te hoko konganuku pēnei i te Tungsten, te Cobalt rānei mai i hea noa atu. Kua mutu taua wā. Ināianei, e rua ā tātou mākete motuhake. Kei Haina tētahi mākete, kei te Hauāuru tētahi. He rerekē ā rātou utu, ā, he rerekē hoki ā rātou ture.
Anei ngā mea e whakaatuhia ana e te rangahau i tēnei wiki:
●Tungsten:Kei te pahū te utu. E 82% o te tuku kei te whakahaerehia e Haina. I tapahia noa e rātou te nui o tā rātou e hoko atu ai ki te ao. I taua wā anō, ka tīmata te Hononga o Amerika ki te utu i te 25% o te taake (taripa) mō te tungsten Hainamana i te 1 o Hānuere.
●Koparata:He pōhēhē te āhua o te whenua i Congo (DRC) engari he mea nui. I whakatakotohia e rātou he rohe mō te nui o ngā taonga ka kaweakehia e rātou. I whakaroahia ake te rā kati hei āwhina i ngā taraka kia puta i te rohe, engari he iti tonu te tapeke o ngā taonga i whakaaetia mō te tau 2026. Kei te piki haere ngā utu nā tēnei.
●Rino Tere-Tiketike (HSS):Koinei te maitai e whakamahia ana hei hanga taputapu tapahi. Nā te mea he nui te utu o ngā kai (te Tungsten me te Cobalt), kei te piki haere ngā utu o te maitai. Engari kei te pukumahi anō ngā wheketere i Haina, nō reira kei te hoko mai rātou i te maitai. Mā tēnei ka piki ake ngā utu.
2.Tungsten: He Kōrero mō ngā Mākete e Rua
I tirotirohia e au te mākete Tungsten i tēnei wiki. Koinei pea te konganuku tino nui mō te hanga taputapu mārō.
Te taha Hainamana
I tukuna e Haina tana rārangi hou o ngā kamupene e whakaaetia ana ki te kaweake i te Tungsten i te 2 o Hānuere. He poto te rārangi. Tekau mā rima noa iho ngā kamupene ka taea te hoko atu ki tāwāhi.1
I tirohia e au ngā utu i Haina. Ko te utu mō te kotahi tana o te "Black Tungsten Concentrate" inaianei neke atu i te 356,000 RMB.2He rekoata teitei rawa tēnei. He aha te nui o te utu? I kitea e au kei te toro atu ngā kaitirotiro taiao ki ngā maina i te kawanatanga o Jiangxi. Kei te akiakihia ngā maina kia kati mō ngā whakatikatika. Nō reira, he iti noa iho ngā toka e puta mai ana i te whenua.
Te taha Hauāuru
I Ūropi me Amerika, kei te mataku ngā kaihoko. Kua eke te utu mō te APT (he momo tungsten) i Rotterdam ki te $850 ki te $1,000.3He teitei ake tēnei i tērā i Haina.
He aha te rerekētanga? Nā ngā taake hou o Amerika. I te Rā o te Tau Hou, i tīmata te kāwanatanga o Amerika i te 25% o te taake mō te tungsten Hainamana.4Kei te ngana ngā kamupene o Amerika ki te hoko mai i ētahi atu whenua pēnei i a Whitināmu, i a Parahi rānei. Engari kāore i te rawaka te tuku mai i reira. Nō reira, me utu e rātou he utu nui.
3. Koparata: Te Korenga Horihori
He mea nui te kobalt mō te hanga taputapu mahi-teitei (pēnei i te maitai M35). Kei te tino pukumahi te mākete mō te kobalt i tēnei wā.
Te nekehanga nui a te Kongo
Ko te nuinga o te Cobalt o te ao i ahu mai i te Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). E hiahia ana te kāwanatanga o reira kia nui ake te moni. Nō reira, i whakatakotohia e rātou he here. I kī rātou ka kaweake noa iho e rātou he 96,600 tana i te tau 2026.5
Anei te raruraru. He nui atu i tēnā e hiahiatia ana e te ao. E whakaatu ana ngā tātaitanga poto i te iti rawa 100,000 tāne e hiahiatia ana.
Te Whakaora "Tūpā"
Tērā pea ka kite koe i ngā pūrongo kua whakaroahia e te Congo tā rātou rā kati tae noa ki Maehe 2026. Kia tūpato ki ēnei pūrongo. I pērā rātou nā te mea he maha rawa ngā taraka i mau ki te rohe.6Kei te whakakore noa iho rātou i te waka. Kāore anō kia rerekē te rohe mō te tau katoa o te tau 2026.
Nā tēnei herenga, i piki te utu o Cobalt i te London Metal Exchange (LME) ki runga ake i te $53,000 i tēnei wiki.7
4. Rino Tere-Teitei: Mā Wai e Utu te Pire?
He aha te pānga o tēnei ki ngā wheketere e hanga ana i ngā mata wiri me ngā taputapu mira?
Te Utu o ngā Koranu
Mai i ngā rārangi utu a ngā kaihanga rino nui o Ūropi pērā i a Erasteel, ka utua e rātou he utu tāpiri e kiia nei ko te "tāpiritanga konukōre." Mō Hānuere 2026, ko tēnei utu he tata ki te 1,919 Euros mō ia tana.8I heke iho i te marama o Tīhema, engari he tino teitei tonu i roto i ngā tau kua pahure ake nei.
Ki te hoko koe i te maitai M35 (kei roto ko te Cobalt), ka nui ake tāu utu i te maitai M2 paerewa. Kei te whānui haere te rerekētanga i waenga i ēnei utu e rua.
Kei te hoki mai te tono
He nui ngā utu, engari kei te hoko mai te iwi? Ae.
Ko ngā raraunga "PMI" mō Hakihea he kaute e whakaatu ana mēnā kei te pukumahi ngā wheketere. Ko te kaute a Haina he 50.1.10Ko te kaute neke atu i te 50 he tohu tipu. Koinei te wā tuatahi i roto i ngā marama kua pai. Ko te tikanga kei te haere tonu ngā wheketere, ā, me whai taputapu rātou.
5. Me aha tātou? (Tohutohu Rautaki)
I runga i ēnei rangahau katoa, anei ētahi tohutohu mō ngā marama e whai ake nei.
1. Kaua e tatari kia heke ngā utu.
Ehara ngā utu teitei i te pikinga rangitahi. Nā ngā ture kāwanatanga (ngā utu me ngā taripa) ēnei i hua ake. Kāore ēnei ture e tere te memeha. Ki te hiahia koe ki ngā rauemi mō te hauwhā tuarua, hoko mai ināianei.
2. Mātakihia te "Horahanga".
Ki te taea e koe te hoko taputapu i hangaia i ngā whenua kāore e pāngia e ngā taake o Amerika, tera pea ka penapena moni koe. Engari kia tūpato. He iti rawa te tuku i aua whenua.
3. Whakamahia anō ngā mea katoa.
He rite tonu te para o te konganuku ki te koura. Kei roto i ngā mata keri tawhito te tungsten me te cobalt. Ki te whakahaere koe i tētahi wheketere, kaua e maka atu. Hokona atu, kaua hoki e hokohoko atu. Kua piki ake te utu o te para tungsten ki te 160% i te tau kua hipa.11
Mō ngā kaihokohoko taputapu o te ao, ngā kaihokohoko rarawe, me ngā kaituku:
Ehara i te mea ko ngā utu teitei anake ngā wero e pā mai ana i te nekehanga o te mākete i te tīmatanga o te tau 2026. Ngā Mea Me Aro Koe Ki:
1. He mea nui ake te pumau o te utu i ngā utu ā-wā
I tēnei wā, he nui ake te mōrearea o te whai i ngā hekenga utu mō te wā poto. Nā ngā huringa kaupapa here maha, ngā mana whakahaere kaweake, me ngā toha rauemi mata, ka piki ohorere ngā utu, ā, kāore e taea te matapae.
Kei te piki haere te uara o tētahi hoa tuku pumau, ā, he mārama hoki te arorau utu, i te utu iti rawa.
2. Ko te Wā Arataki me te Takenga Mai he Take Rautaki Inaianei
Ka pā tika te whenua taketake, te kaha whakaputa, me ngā hongere rauemi ki te pono o te tuku.
Ahakoa he iti noa ngā utu e tukuna ana e ētahi rohe kore-taake, ka taea e te iti o te kaha me te kore pumau o te tuku te whakakore i aua painga.
3. Me roa ake te wā e hiahiatia ana mō te whakamahere rarangi taonga
Kāore i te tino whai hua te rautaki tuku iho "hoko ina heke ngā utu". E akiakihia ana ngā kaihoko ki te whakamahere i ngā hoko i te iti rawa i te hauwhā i mua i te wā, me te tiki i ngā SKU matua i te wā tuatahi, inā koa mō ngā taputapu tapahi e ahu mai ana i te cobalt me te tungsten.
Tō Mātou Kawenga hei Kaihanga:
Hei kaihanga taputapu me te kaiwhakarato wā roa, e whakapono ana mātou ehara tā mātou mahi i te whakanui ake i te mataku o te mākete, engari he āwhina i ō mātou hoa mahi ki te whakatere i te koretake me ngā mōhiohio mārama ake me te whakamahere pono.
Ko tā mātou arotahi mō ngā marama e haere ake nei ko:
●Te pupuri i ngā wātaka whakaputa pumau ahakoa te rerekētanga o ngā rauemi mata
●Te arotau i te whakamahinga rauemi, tae atu ki te hangarua me te whakahaere hua
●Te kōrero wawe ki ngā kiritaki mō te pēhanga utu me ngā huringa o te wā arahi
●Te karo i ngā utu whakapae, engari me tuku atu ngā whakatau utu e hāngai ana ki ngā raraunga ka taea te whakamārama
E mārama ana mātou kei raro hoki i te pēhanga o ā mātou kiritaki i ā rātou ake mākete. Ko te mahi tahi pumau, i roto i tēnei taiao, e whakawhirinaki ana ki te whakawhirinaki, te māramatanga, me te mōhiotanga ki ngā mōrearea, kaua ki te whakataetae utu mō te wā poto.
6. Whakarāpopototanga: He Āhua Hou mō te Ahumahi Utauta
Kua rerekē te mākete. Kāore i te mea ko te tuku me te tono anake te kaupapa, engari ko te raru nui haere ki ngā mahi tōrangapū me ngā rohe. Kua heke te ārai rino mō ngā rauemi, ā, kua nui haere te utu o ngā mea katoa. Ka maumaharatia a Hānuere 2026 hei wā tino nui i roto i te mākete kohuke nui. I kitea i tēnei marama te pakaru o ngā kaupapa hokohoko kore utu ki ngā āhuatanga tino kino o te ao tōrangapū, ka puta he ao hou e tautuhia ana e ngā arai, ngā rohenga, me ngā mahi rautaki. Mō ia kaiuru i roto i te mekameka ahumahi, ko te urutau ki tēnei āhua hou o "ngā utu nui, te piki me te heke o te uara, me te ture pakari" ehara i te mea nui anake mō te oranga tonutanga engari ko te kī hoki ki te whakapūmau i te painga whakataetae mō te tekau tau e whai ake nei.
Kei te tomo te mākete taputapu tapahi ki tētahi wā e rite ana te hiranga o ngā mahi tōrangapū whenua, ngā ture, me te haumarutanga rauemi ki te hiranga o te kaha whakanao.
Mō ngā kaihoko me ngā kaiwhakarato, ehara i te mea ko te pātai matua
"E hia te iti o te utu ka taea e au te hoko?"
engari
"Me pēhea te pono o taku whakarite i te taonga mō ngā marama 12–24 e whai ake nei?"
Ko te hunga e urutau wawe ana ki tēnei ao hou ka pai ake te tūnga ina noho te piki me te heke o te tau, kaua hei mea rerekē.
Whakakape: I hangaia tēnei pūrongo i runga i ngā mōhiohio mākete e wātea ana ki te marea, ngā purongo ahumahi, me ngā wāhanga raraunga i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026. Kei reira ngā mōrearea mākete; me tūpato te haumitanga.
Ngā mahi i whakahuatia
1. Kua whakaingoatia e Haina ngā kamupene kua whakaaetia ki te kaweake i ngā konganuku nui i te tau 2026-2027 - Investing.com, i tirohia i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026,https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/china-names-companies-allowed-to-export-critical-metals-in-20262027-93CH-4425149
2. Kei te piki tonu ngā utu o te Tungsten i te mea ka whakapiki ake ngā kaihanga nui i ngā utu kirimana mō te wā roa, he tohu tēnei i te pikinga nui o te 150% i tēnei tau [SMM Comment] - Shanghai Metal Market, i tirohia i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103664822
3. Kei te piki haere ngā utu o te Tungsten Pākehā nā te pikinga o Haina, kei te whakararu te kore whakaputanga i mua i te hararei i te pikinga ake [SMM Analysis] - Shanghai Metal Market, i tirohia i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103669348
4. Te Whakaotinga a te Hononga o Amerika i te Wāhanga 301 o ngā Whakapikinga Taripa mō ngā Kawemai mai i Haina, i tirohia i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026,https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-finalizes-section-301-tariff-increases-imports-china
5.Ka whakakapia e te DRC te aukati kaweake konupora ki ngā rohenga - Project Blue, i tirohia i te 27 o Hakihea, 2025,https://projectblue.com/blue/news-analysis/1319/drc-to-replace-cobalt-export-ban-with-quotas
6. I whakatau te DRC ki te whakaroa i te rohenga kaweake konupora o te tau 2025 ki te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2026., i tirohia i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103701184
7.Kobalt - Utu - Tūtohi - Raraunga Hītori - Ngā Pūrongo - Ōhanga Hokohoko, i tirohia i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026,https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt
8. Tāpiritanga koranu | Legierungszuschlag.info, i tirohia i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026,https://legierungszuschlag.info/en/
9. Te Utu o ngā Hea o Tiangong International Co Ltd i Tēnei Rā | HK: 0826 Ora - Investing.com, i tirohia i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026,https://www.investing.com/equities/tiangong-international-co-ltd
10. Te pikinga ake o te hangahanga i te marama o Tīhema, i tirohia i te 4 o Hānuere, 2026,https://www.ecns.cn/news/economy/2026-01-02/detail-iheymvap1611554.shtml
11. Ka Piki ake ngā Utu o te Tungsten Concentrate i te 7% i roto i te Rā Kotahi – Hakihea 16, 2025, i tirohia i te Hakihea 27, 2025,https://www.ctia.com.cn/en/news/46639.html
Wā tuku: Hanuere-05-2026